{"id":115,"date":"2019-12-22T18:25:59","date_gmt":"2019-12-22T18:25:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pide.org.pk\/blog\/?p=115"},"modified":"2019-12-23T09:59:44","modified_gmt":"2019-12-23T09:59:44","slug":"economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pide.org.pk\/blog\/economic-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Public Policy & Economic Growth in Pakistan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by Dr. Faheem Jehangir Khan<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan\u2019s history is characterised by political instability, multiple military coups (1958, 1969, 1977, 1999), conflict with neighbouring India over water resources and Kashmir (1965, 1971, 1999), the creation of Bangladesh from East Pakistan (1971), episodes of love and hate relations with the United States (1960s, 1980s, post 9\/11), the state\u2019s involvement in the Afghan-Soviet war (1979-1989), and its role as a frontline state in the \u2018war on terror\u2019 (2001 onwards). Furthermore, two massive natural disasters \u2013 a 7.9 magnitude earthquake in October 2005 and unprecedented floods in July-August 2010 \u2013 accompanied by internal security hazards, ethnic strife, energy crisis and global economic recession have undermined the continuation of development policies. Over the years, these events have resulted in unsteady economic growth, short-lived economic booms, and external and internal conflicts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1: Pakistan’s Political History and GDP Growth <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In her book on \u2018The Struggle for Pakistan: A Muslim Homeland\nand Global Politics<\/em>\u2019, Ayesha Jalal (2014) explains how the vexed\nrelationship with the United States of America, border disputes with\nneighbouring Afghanistan in the west, and unending conflict with India over Kashmir\nin the East, combined with ethnic rivalries have created a siege mentality that\nencourages military domination and militant extremism in Pakistan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the last six decades, despite multiple\ncollaborations with development partners and receiving huge amounts of foreign\naid with considerable variations over time, Pakistan is still far from the\nstage of self-sustaining economic growth. Pakistan\u2019s growth experience of the\nlast four decades suggests volatile annual growth and declining trend in long\nrun growth patterns. A regime analysis tells us that the average GDP growth\nrates were higher during the military governments as compared to the tenures when\ndemocratic governments were in power. However, higher inflows of foreign\neconomic assistance, international trade support and debt relief have played an\nimportant role during military eras. A GDP growth comparison of regional\neconomies, during 2009-2019, shows that Pakistan is a worst-performing economy.\nIt grew on average 4.1 percent which is way behind the growth rates of\nBangladesh, India and China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the years, political\ninstability, inconsistency in public policy-making and lack of policy\npersuasion have played a detrimental part in undermining the state\u2019s role to\ncope with the deteriorating socio-economic conditions in Pakistan. Figure belowshows proliferation of policies, their\ntenure and GDP growth trend during the last three regimes (1999-2018). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan entered the 21st century without a comprehensive action plan to improve the living standards of its people. During the last two decade, multiple medium to long-term national development plans were formulated, but only one of them \u2013 the MTDF 2005-2010 \u2013 has completed its planned policy period while all others were either discontinued or replaced by a new policy plan\/framework. During the same period, international development agenda \u2013 the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) \u2013 heavily influenced the national and sub-national policies. All plans, except the Framework for Economic Growth (2011), were formulated keeping in view the MDG and SDG. Limited attention was given to the indigenous approach towards public policy. Perhaps that is why Pakistan failed to achieve most of the MDG targets and today following SDG targets with vague approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2: 21st Century Comprehensive Action Plans and Economic Growth <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Almost all medium to long-term plans\nprepared during political and\/or military regimes were shelved in the country\u2019s\nhistory after change in leadership. Despite wide circulation of these plans,\nhardly anyone reads them, understands them, implement them! Hence, broadly\nspeaking, none of them succeeded in getting the desired results. Over the\nyears, national and sub-national development plans have become more of a formal\npresentation document than actual action plans. Priorities of projects and\nprograms have replaced the formulation and implementation of policies in\nPakistan. This can easily be seen through the Public Sector Development Program\n(PSDP)\/ Annual Development Plans (ADP) documents; selected projects in selected\npolicy areas get adequate allocation of funds for speedy completion on the cost\nof others equally important policy interventions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among others, visibility<\/em> is an important factor that influence governments\u2019\npriorities. Here, visibility may refer to governments\u2019 sensitivity to their\nappearance in the development process which could improve their reputation or\nprofile to receive public appreciation. Research evidence indicates that politicians\nin Pakistan often initiate politically-driven projects and tag their name or\nparty\u2019s slogan on these project activities partly to enhance their political\nreputation and visibility. Evidence also suggests that in pursuit of political\nreputation, every new regime seeks to abandon active projects launched by\nprevious governments and take certain development initiatives to differentiate\nthemselves from their opponents and previous governments. In this process, the\npolitical leadership often opt for quick-fixes and initiate politically-driven\nprojects partly to enhance their political reputation and to achieve short-term\npolitical gains. It was observed that politically-driven projects were often\nheavily funded, expensive, sometimes technically flawed, and had less impact\npartly due to political considerations that directed the objectives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The presence of numerous development\npartners in Pakistan have also played a role in discouraging the governments to\ndesign and implement a more holistic localized development agenda by extending financial\nand technical assistance; undermining state capacity and creating addiction for\nready-made solutions to complex domestic problems. Having said that, the\ngovernment also lacks adequate resources and capacity to come up with\ncomprehensive solutions to complex problems. There are acute shortages of\nspecialists\/technocrats in the government. Policy-makers do talk about the\nimportance of evidence-based decision making, but the importance of research\n& development and data governance are often ignored. The quality and\nefficiency of civil bureaucracy \u2013 practitioners who are responsible to\ntransform policy into action \u2013 has deteriorated over time. These have increased\ngovernment\u2019s reliance on outsiders such as consultants, advisors and\ncontractors to do miracles in short period of time. Although these consultants,\noften paid by the development partners, are experienced in their specialised fields,\nthey lack understanding about the dynamics of public policy processes in\nPakistan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is interesting to note that public policy problems are well known to everyone. It is broadly known what\u2019s wrong with the system; civil bureaucracy, institutions, education sector, health sector, water and sanitation etc. The problem at large is \u2018how to reform?\u2019 in such a way to improve the functioning of the government in general and public service delivery in particular. The answer would never be simple, but what hampers reforms in Pakistan is the ambition to bring massive reforms in the system both vertically and horizontally at one point of time after long breaks. This approach failed multiple times. The new approach should be to take smaller but incremental steps, more considerably and regularly. Reform should be participatory, transparent and continuous process at all levels. Finally, policy persuasion and collective action are inevitable to sustainable development. As of today, there is no formal platform in Pakistan where development partners, government organisations and other stakeholders could interact frequently, share information, float innovative development ideas, and learn best practices so that they can contribute to the development process more productively. In the absence of these formal specialized platforms, organisations with different perceptions about the problems and preferences for the solutions pursue their own (competing) objectives. Absence of formal platforms results in fragmentation of ideas, weak coordination between multiple organisations, duplication of initiatives etc. In such a scenario, it can empower a few influential organisations holding critical resources in the policy network. It is likely that the presence of a few influential organizations and strategy to influence public policy in one-to-one engagement explain the absence of formal platforms. Think tank like the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) can and should fill this gap by formulating specialized policy platforms for public policy research, debate and mutual learning. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Dr. Faheem Jehangir Khan Pakistan\u2019s history is characterised by political instability, multiple military coups (1958, 1969, 1977, 1999), conflict with neighbouring India over water resources and Kashmir (1965, 1971, 1999), the creation of Bangladesh from East Pakistan (1971), episodes of love and hate relations with the United States (1960s, 1980s, post 9\/11), the state\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1,38],"tags":[35,37,12,15,36,34,33],"yoast_head":"\nPublic Policy & Economic Growth in Pakistan - PIDE Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pide.org.pk\/blog\/economic-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Public Policy & Economic Growth in Pakistan - 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