{"id":701,"date":"2020-07-24T23:34:28","date_gmt":"2020-07-24T18:34:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pide.org.pk\/blog\/?p=701"},"modified":"2020-07-24T23:34:31","modified_gmt":"2020-07-24T18:34:31","slug":"avoiding-a-second-wave-of-covid-19-infections-appeal-to-other-regarding-preference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pide.org.pk\/blog\/avoiding-a-second-wave-of-covid-19-infections-appeal-to-other-regarding-preference\/","title":{"rendered":"Avoiding a Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections: Appeal to Other-regarding Preference"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By Ms. Zehra Aftab and Ms. Fareena N. Malhi<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Second COVID-19 infection wave an imminent threat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>While\nPakistanis are rejoicing the onset of the <a href=\"about:blank\">downward trend<\/a> in percentage of positive tests of\nCovid-19 infection, the threat of a second wave is very real, especially with\nEid-ul-Azha just round the corner. A small miscalculation at this point can\nrevert the apparent success into a complete disaster. United States is a case\nin point where, despite the initial downward trend, since July <a href=\"about:blank\">the infection\nrate has again surged<\/a>;\nin fact, this time round it has surpassed the initial peak experienced in\nApril. An early opening of the lockdown and premature easing of restrictions in\nmany states is thought to have played a significant role in this reversal of\nthe trend. Similarly, the <a href=\"about:blank\">second wave can be observed in Iran<\/a> where the death rate has already surpassed\nthe initial peak witnessed during the first wave. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Optimism Bias Leads to Sub-optimal Behaviour<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Pakistan is a nation heavily immersed in \u2018<a href=\"about:blank\">Optimism Bias<\/a>\u2019 i.e. we display unrealistic optimism about our vulnerability to a wide set of negative life outcomes.\u00a0 Formally, optimism bias refers to our tendency to estimate the probability of positive future outcomes as greater than average and the probability of facing negative life events (such as cancer) as less than average. We are, therefore, inherently predisposed to thinking that we are less likely to contract the covid-19 virus than our peers, and this may lead to people unwittingly taking extra risks regarding their health and consequently taking suboptimal decisions \u2013 not wearing face-masks and gloves, not washing hands regularly and not abiding by the social distancing recommendations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The over-confidence and optimism bias that followed the opening of shopping malls before Eid-ul-Fitr, and allowing congregational prayers in mosques (while the rest of the Islamic world was in complete lockdown), has already done a lot of damage. Now, after nearly two months, the Covid-19 infection rate has eventually registered a declining tend, its critical that the government continues its firm stance and remain cognizant of the fact that because of optimism bias good news is more likely to change our beliefs\u00a0<a href=\"about:blank\">more rapidly than bad news<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Clear and Strict Messaging from the Top<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In\nsuch an environment this article recommends a two-pronged approach to ensure\ncompliance of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).&nbsp; First, the government needs to work on <em>risk perception<\/em>: maintain the strict\nstance on implementation of SOPs and continue with lockdown of hotspots, clear messaging\nfrom the top combined with transfer of accurate information. Based on the\nlessons we learnt a few months ago with regard to ease of restrictions pre- and\nduring Eid-ul-Fitr holidays, it is imperative to remind the public that\nnon-economic gatherings such as family and friends\u2019 get-togethers are extremely\nharmful and need to be curtailed during this pandemic. A <a href=\"about:blank\">study<\/a>\nbased on simulations by Harvard University and University of California\nresearchers suggests that non-economic interventions \u2013 such as reducing\ninteractions in personal spaces &#8211; &nbsp;is\nexpected to be more effective in deterring the spread of the virus and of\ncourse has a lower economic impact. Therefore, it is critical that the government continues its firm\nstance without introducing any mixed signals so that behavior change in terms\nof taking precautionary measures and following SOPs continues despite the\noncoming Eid-ul-Azha and its accompanied tradition of qurbani. This leads us to\nour second policy recommendation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Appealing to other-regarding preferences i<\/strong>n<strong> negotiations with Maulanas<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When negotiating with\nthe maulana community the government should appeal to these other-regarding\npreferences (such as altruism). Eid-ul-Azha is a religious festival and needs\nto be dealt with sensitively by striking the right chords.&nbsp; Existing experimental literature on Pakistani\nuniversity\/madrassa students suggests that madrassa students are <a href=\"about:blank\">more generous and trusting than\ntheir peers<\/a> and contribute more to the public good as compared to elite and\nmiddle-income university students. Here public good is defined as a\nnon-excludable, non-rival good that will benefit the entire community, such as\nthe construction of a road or a bridge and hence, contributing towards such a\ngood suggests the presence of other-regarding preferences. Based on this\nevidence, today we plead negotiating SOPs for the Eid-ul-Azha congregational\nprayers and the accompanied qurbani with the mulana community\/leadership by\nappealing to these other-regarding preferences. In this article, we argue that\nlimiting congregational prayers is not sacrilegious because Allah\nSubhan-a-Tallah prioritized rights of people (Haqooq-ul-Ibad) over His own\nrights (Haqooq-ul-Allah). Since Pakistan is a predominantly collective society\nwhere an individual\u2019s behavior not only reflects on the individual himself, but\non the entire family, it is essential to explain to the maulvis that insisting\non congregational prayers is selfish and may lead to not only the individual himself\ncontracting the virus but passing it on to one\u2019s family (including vulnerable\nelderly parents and young children) and even putting his respective community\nin danger. The government can, therefore, insist on online qurbani and perhaps even\nsuggest that in such an environment, it will be better to give money in charity\nthan to physically slaughter livestock and risk the spread of disease. Consequently,\nwe need to think beyond ourselves and about our community and fellow ummah when\ndeciding whether to say Eid prayers at home or in congregation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To reiterate, the government needs to be firm in its negotiations with the religious community and avoid sending mixed signals or softening its stance at this time if it wants to avoid another spike in corona cases after this Eid. Evidence confirms that second wave of Covid-19 tends to be worse in severity. Hence, the government must tread sensibly and realize its duty to its people and not succumb to the whims of a small community, no matter how influential. Given that in fact risk preferences are malleable and can change over time policy prescriptions need to be strict and objective to ensure adequate risk perception and compliance into taking precautionary measures even at the occasion of Eid-ul-Azha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ms. Zehra Aftab is Faculty Fellow, American University and can be reached at <a href=\"about:blank\">aftab.zehra@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ms.  Fareena N. Malhi is Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of the Punjab and PhD Candidate at American University. She can be reached at <a href=\"about:blank\">fareenamalhi.eco@pu.edu.pk<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Ms. Zehra Aftab and Ms. Fareena N. Malhi Introduction Second COVID-19 infection wave an imminent threat While Pakistanis are rejoicing the onset of the downward trend in percentage of positive tests of Covid-19 infection, the threat of a second wave is very real, especially with Eid-ul-Azha just round the corner. A small miscalculation at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1,8,7],"tags":[114,207,210,208,209],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Avoiding a Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections: Appeal to Other-regarding Preference - PIDE Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pide.org.pk\/blog\/avoiding-a-second-wave-of-covid-19-infections-appeal-to-other-regarding-preference\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Avoiding a Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections: Appeal to Other-regarding Preference - PIDE Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Ms. Zehra Aftab and Ms. Fareena N. Malhi Introduction Second COVID-19 infection wave an imminent threat While Pakistanis are rejoicing the onset of the downward trend in percentage of positive tests of Covid-19 infection, the threat of a second wave is very real, especially with Eid-ul-Azha just round the corner. 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