Estimating the Quantitative Importance of Various Sources of Macroeconomic Variability

Providing a reasonable explanation for the business cycle has been the research agenda for many economists since the early 20th century, from Mitchell (1913), Pigou (1927) and Adelman and Adelman (1959) to Lucas (1972), Black (1982) and King and Plosser (1984). For a review, see Zarnowitz (1985). Most attempts to explain the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations’ attribute the variability in output and prices to only a few sources, sometimes tomJ.y one. Kydland and Prescott (1982) and others proposed technology shocks as the main source of aggregate variability; Barro (1977) pointed to unanticipated changes in money stock; Lilien (1982) argued for ‘unusual structural shifts’ such as changes in the demand for goods relative to services, and Hamilton (1983) concluded in favour of oil price shocks.