Pakistan Institute of Development Economics



Fisher Effect in Pakistan

Author: Hamid Hasan

This paper attempts to test the validity of the Fisher Hypothesis (FH) in Pakistan by investigating the long-run relationship between interest rate and inflation rate applying cointegration analysis. The FH has serious implications for debtors and creditors in an inflation prone economy since inflationary expectations influence nominal interest rate. Moreover, the effectiveness of monetary policy and efficiency in banking sector has direct bearing on the long-run relationship between nominal interest rate and expected inflation rate. Inflationary expectation has been modeled using adaptive and rational expectation approaches and sensitivity of the result to expectation formation has been compared. The paper finds the long-run relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate and accepts the partial Fisher Hypothesis. This result suggests that interest rate does not fully cover or accurately anticipate inflation, which implies that bank deposits deteriorate over time. The result further implies that monetary policy may not be effective in such a situation and households’ savings rate may suffer a decline. The acceptance of partial Fisher Hypothesis in case of rational expectation suggests that the rate of interest does not reflect all relevant information and real interest rate does not exhibit random walk behaviour, which is indicative of inefficiency in banking sector. The analysis clearly shows the failure of interest rate as a hedge against inflation and as a predictor of inflation. Therefore, the paper recommends innovation and financial engineering for better alternative especially in banking. The paper also recommends the growth and encouragement of equity market vis-à-vis prevalent debt-biased market. Finally, the paper advocates the complete replacement of traditional credit-based banking by more efficient trade-based banking in Pakistan.

Hamid Hasan