Pakistan Institute of Development Economics



Industrialization in Pakistan A case of Frustrated take-Off ?

Development planning in Pakistan aims at reaching the stage of self generating growth “within a measurable period of time”1. The perspective of long-term growth outlined in the Second Five Year Plan envisages a quad¬rupling of national income and the achievement of a six-per-cent per annum growth rate by the end of the sixth-plan period2. This is generally taken to define the period of planned take-off into self sustained growth. The choice of a 30-year period is, in any case, consistent with take-off periods identified by Rostow for a number of countries, all of which fall within a range of 20 to 30 years3. Whatever merit the device of identifying stages of growth has for econo¬mic history, the stipulation of a limited period during which it is expected that the transition from economic stagnation to steady progress will have been largely completed has two advantages for development planning. First, in view of the sacrifices required, a landmark of achievement, visible within the time horizon of the “take-off generation”, is almost essential if there is to be any measure of popular support for economic development. Second, it pro¬vides a time schedule of planned progress to discipline policy decisions and to serve as a yardstick against which to measure economic performance.

John H. Power

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