Pakistan Institute of Development Economics



Socio-Economic Analysis of Household Energy Security: Evidencefrom 3D Energy Losses Surface Maps (ELSMs) of a Town Using Conjunctureof Factors Matrix, Digital and Mathematical Analysis

Pakistan is facing perpetual and worsening energy crisis. Forvision 2025, the most important litmus test is to overcome energy crisisand ensure energy security by imaginative and innovative energyalternatives. In the same context, scientists, experts and researchershave been focusing on renewables and non-renewable energy generationalternatives, but have largely ignored the flip side. The extravagantuse of energy, unlawful connections and losses in distribution systemare contributors to ongoing energy crisis. For energy security in adeveloping country like Pakistan, elimination of energy losses seems aviable option, alongside generation of energy. Therefore, there is aneed to have socio-economic analysis of energy losses. In this paper,energy losses for electricity were estimated for Lali Bagh Town ofPeshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province using a versatile and innovativesocio-economic framework. This framework was based on factors matrixcomprising socio-economic, environmental and energy factors pertainingto households. Within the factors matrix approach, three methods wereused for analysis of energy losses; the statistical analysis to obtaintrend and ratings of electricity losses, digital analysis of the data bycomputer assisted qualitative data analysis software (CAQDAS) to get thedigitally iterated and attenuated models along with representativeequations and mathematical analysis of equations by Newton-Leibnizintegration process to obtain numerical value of the ratings. Based onthe results obtained, three dimensional energy losses surface maps(ELSMs) were prepared for Lali Bagh Town of Peshawar, Khyber PakhtunkhwaProvince. At the end, policy recommendations have been given in thecontext of vision 2025. Paper is a unique combination of theoretical,mathematical and digital cum spatial economics. JEL Classification: O22,Q21, Q31, Q41. Keywords: Socio-economic, Analysis, Energy, Security,Electricity, Losses, Factors, Matrix, Digital, Maps.

Ejaz Gul,

Imran Sharif Chaudhry