Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

PDR

THE PAKISTAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 

A Forecast of Wheat Production in the Punjab for 1973-74

In an earlier article [1, pp.407-15] the authors developed a statistical model for forecasting wheat production. Among the equations developed, it was found out that equation (2.2) for irrigated districts and equation (3.2) for barani districts could be useful in forecasting wheat production in the Punjab. While the forecasting procedure was elaborated in detail, it was not possible to forecast wheat production for 1973-74 because data on the explanatory variables underlying the model were not then available. As these are now available, this paper is an attempt to forecast wheat production for 1973-74. For comparison, the paper also includes a forecast for 1972-73 based on the model. Before discussing the forecast itself, however, a brief review of the underlying equations and data used in the study would be desirable.

B. A. Azhar, M.Ghaffar Chaudhry, M. Shafique

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