Monetary Anticipations and the Demand for Money: An Application for the South Asian Region

While there are a number of issues in economics which are frequently scrutinized, the most important of them probably is the determination of a stable money demand function. Other issues in this regard relate to the choice between (i) broad vs. narrow definition of money; (ii) measured vs. permanent income; (iii) short-term vs. long-term interest rate; and (iv) inclusion of a variable for inflation or expected inflation. Quite recently, a new dimension has been added to the demand for money function. It is now argued that unanticipatory changes in the nominal money supply also affect the real demand for money. Darby (1972) has proposed that unanticipatory nominal money supply behaves as a shock-absorber in the money demand function. Initially, Laidler (1980) and then Carr and Darby (1981) formulated a shock-absorber model in which they have shown empirically that unanticipatory shocks in money supply positively affect the demand for money. Inclusion of this shock variable was justified by Darby (1972) on the ground that money balances serve as a buffer stock or shock-absorber which temporarily absorbs unexpected variations in income, especially the transitory income, until an adjustment is reached in adjusting the portfolio of securities and in consumer durable goods. The shock absorber model of Carr and Darby is based on the following two hypotheses: