Pakistan Institute of Development Economics



A Rational Expectations Macro-econometric Model of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy since 1970s

Since April 1985 the operations of the entire financial sector in Pakistan have been transformed into a system which is expected to conform to the laws of 1slamic society. Under this system all banks and other financial institutions are supposed to conduct their borrowing and lending according to an interest free Islamic financial system, except for past commitments which may have been carried over in accordance with original commitments! With this rapid transition towards the interest free banking system in Pakistan, the present decade has witnessed the emergence of the State Bank of Pakistan as a key participant in the area of policy formation. Indeed, the greater participation of the governor and the bank has given rise to a considerable amount of discussion and debate over Pakistan’s monetary policy among the academics and politicians at home and abroad. To a large extent, this discussion and analysis has been essentially descriptive, being based upon casual observations rather than tightly formulated econometric models. From the viewpoint of understanding Pakistan’s economy over the 1970s and 1980s within the framework of a complete macro model, there is a growing need to empirically establish the mechanisms of monetary policy in Pakistan and to determine its impact on such macro-economic variables as real output and employment.

M. Aynul Hasan

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