Choice of Mode for the Worktrip in a Third World City: Karachi

The paper is an analysis of the demand for different travel modes in the city of Karachi. The model analyses the probability that an individual makes a certain choice as a function of the mode characteristics and transport system and the socio-economic characteristics of the individual traveller. The analysis focuses on the worktrip: The model used is the disaggregated probabilistic choice and it is estimated through the maximum likelihood multinomial logit technique. The data for the analysis comes from a sample of 5696 workers in the city of Karachi. The main determinants of the mode choice analysed are: transport-related characteristics (travel time, official transport, shared transport, peak-hour travel) and socioeconomic characteristics (number of dependents, income, head-of-households status, sex, type of occupation). The results show that the overall model is robust and has high prediction accuracy. The estimated model is useful since it is responsive to most variables and can be used to calculate the effect of changes in the various attributes on the demand for different travel modes. Estimates of the model can also be of value to planners, who can predict probabilities for different modes and calculate the effect of specific policy changes on the demand for travel.