Pakistan Institute of Development Economics



Contrarian and Momentum Investment Strategies in Pakistan StockExchange

This study examines several aspects of the momentum strategies, such as profitability, risk-based explanation, and decomposition of the momentum profits. For this purpose, we use weekly and monthly data of 581 firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for the period 2004-2014. We found the presence of momentum profits over short and long-horizons, while majority of the contrarian profits were observed only in the presence of penny stocks that have share prices of PKR 10 or less. As a robustness check, we computed returns through the weighted relative strength scheme (WRSS) procedure and average cumulative abnormal returns (ACARs). Interestingly, the results reported through WRSS have shown a similar pattern to that obtained through average cumulative abnormal returns (ACARs). Further, to know which factor contributes more to momentum and contrarian profits, we used the model proposed by Lo and MacKinlay (1990). Our findings show that the overreaction effect is the largest contributing factor of contrarian profits in PSX, while cross-sectional risk is the second largest factor and negatively affects the contrarian profits. Moreover, the lead-lag effect contributes positively to the contrarian profits. Similarly, the largest contributing factor for momentum profits is the underreaction effect, whereas cross-sectional risk is the second largest factor that positively affects momentum profits. Unlike contrarian profits, lead-lag effect reduces the momentum profits in the PSX.

Attaullah Shah, Jalal Shah