Pakistan Institute of Development Economics



Single Stock Futures Trading and Stock Price Volatility: Empirical Analysis

This study examines impact of the introduction of single stock futures contracts on the return volatility of the SSFs-listed underlying stocks. The study documents a significant decrease in return volatility for the SSFs-underlying stocks following the introduction of single stock futures contracts on the Karachi Stock Exchange. The multivariate analysis in which the spot trading volume, the futures trading volume and open interest were partitioned into news and informationless components, the estimated coefficient of expected futures volume component is statistically significant and negatively related to volatility, suggesting that equity volatility is mitigated when the expected level of futures activity is high. The findings of the decreased spot price volatility of the SSFs-underlying stocks associated with large expected futures activity is important to the debate of regarding the role of equity derivatives trading in stock market volatility. These empirical results for the Pakistan’s equity market support theories implying that equity derivates trading improves liquidity provision and depth in the equity markets, and appear to be in contrast to the theories implying that equity derivates markets provide a medium for destabilising speculation. Finally, the SSFs-listed stocks were grouped with a sample of non-SSFs stocks to examine cross-sectional data for comparing changes in return volatility. After controlling for the effects of a number of determinants of volatility, sufficient evidence is found to support that, this multivariate test, like the previous analysis, provides no evidence that the volatility of the SSFsunderlying stocks is positively related to the introduction of the single stock futures trading in the Pakistan’s stock market.

Syed Tahir Hijzi, Safi Ullah Khan